Chimanga, chomwe chili pamwamba pa mbewu zitatu zazikulu za chakudya ku China, chili ndi malo obzala ambiri komanso chotulutsa chakudya chambiri kwambiri pakati pa mbewu zonse za chakudya. Chili ndi udindo wosasinthika pakuonetsetsa kuti chakudya chili bwino m'dziko lonse, kuthandizira chitukuko cha makampani opanga chakudya ndi gawo lokonza zinthu mozama. M'zaka zaposachedwa, chifukwa cha zinthu zambiri monga kusintha kwa njira zoperekera ndi kufunikira kwa chakudya m'dziko muno komanso kunja, kutsika kwa mitengo nthawi ndi nthawi, komanso kukwera kosalekeza kwa ndalama zopangira, makampani opanga chimanga akukumana ndi vuto la "kutulutsa kwambiri koma kogwira ntchito pang'ono".
Pachifukwa ichi, kutengera deta yayikulu ya mafakitale a chimanga ku China, pepalali likusanthula mosamala zizindikiro zazikulu monga kupanga, mitengo yamsika, malonda ochokera kunja ndi kunja, kapangidwe ka ndalama ndi ndalama zobzala. Likuwunikira mosamala momwe zinthu zilili pakupereka ndi kufunikira, kusintha kwa mitengo ndi kusintha kwa ndalama zomwe zimalowa pamsika wa chimanga, makamaka poyerekeza kusiyana kwa ndalama zobzala chimanga ndi ndalama zomwe zimalowa pakati pa China ndi United States.
Kusanthula kwa Mkhalidwe wa Kupanga Chimanga ku China
1.1. Derali lakula bwino kwa zaka zitatu zotsatizana.
Malinga ndi ziwerengero za National Bureau of Statistics, mu 2025, malo obzala chimanga ku China adafika pa 6,744.12 miliyoni mu (pafupifupi maekala 674 miliyoni), kuwonjezeka kwa 330.15 miliyoni mu mu poyerekeza ndi 2024, ndi kuwonjezeka kwa pafupifupi 0.49%. Mwachidule, chabwerera pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri wa 2015. Komabe, kukula kwakhala kukuwonetsa kuchepa pang'onopang'ono, kutsika kuchokera pa 4.99% mu 2021 kufika pa 0.49% mu 2025, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti malo okulirapo malo obzala chimanga ku China achepa.
1.2. Kutulutsa kwapadera kumaposa matani 300 miliyoni
Kuyambira mu 2015 mpaka 2025, kupanga chimanga ku China kunawonetsa chizolowezi chonse cha "kutsika koyamba kenako kukwera". Poyerekeza ndi kubwereranso kwa "U-shaped" m'malo obzala, liwiro la kupanga linali lofulumira ndipo kuwonjezeka kunali kwakukulu. Kuyambira mu 2015 mpaka 2018, inali nthawi yotsika pang'ono, pomwe kupanga kunatsika kuchoka pa matani 264,992.2 miliyoni kufika pa matani 257,173.9 miliyoni, kuchepa konse kwa pafupifupi 2.95%. Kuyambira mu 2019 mpaka 2025, idalowa munthawi yakukula kosalekeza. Kupatula kusintha pang'ono mu 2020, idakula bwino kwa zaka zisanu zotsatizana, kuchoka pa matani 26,077.89 miliyoni kufika pa matani 30,123.5 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka konse kwa pafupifupi 15.51%. Mu 2025, kupanga chimanga ku China kunapitilira matani 300 miliyoni koyamba, ndikuyika mbiri yatsopano yakale.
1.3. Kapangidwe ka Dziko Lonse ka Makampani a Chimanga
Mu 2024, ulimi wa chimanga m'zigawo 10 zotsatirazi - Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Sichuan, ndi Yunnan - unali m'gulu la malo oyamba 1 mpaka 10 padziko lonse lapansi. Kuchuluka kwa ulimi wa chimanga m'chigawo chilichonse kunapitirira matani 100 miliyoni - zonse pamodzi zinali matani 24089.16 miliyoni (pafupifupi matani 2.41 biliyoni), zomwe zinali 81.68% ya chimanga chomwe chinapangidwa m'dziko lonselo. Pakati pawo, Heilongjiang inali pamalo apamwamba pankhani ya kuchuluka kwa ulimi, kufika matani 4584.94 miliyoni, zomwe zinali 15.55% ya kuchuluka kwa ulimi wonse m'dziko lonselo.
2.1. Kufunika kwa Ogula ndi Mitengo
Poganizira momwe chakudya chimagwiritsidwira ntchito, m'chaka cha ndalama cha 2024/2025, chimanga chonse chomwe chimagwiritsidwira ntchito ku China chinali pafupifupi matani 297.86 miliyoni. Pakati pa izi, chakudya chomwe chimagwiritsiridwa ntchito chinali chachikulu, chomwe chinali pafupifupi matani 193.50 miliyoni, chomwe chinali pafupifupi 64.96% ya chakudya chonse chomwe chimagwiritsiridwa ntchito. Pa chakudya chomwe chimagwiritsiridwa ntchito, ulimi wa nkhumba unali pafupifupi 50%, ndipo chakudya cha nkhuku chinali pafupifupi 40%. Chakudya chomwe chimagwiritsiridwa ntchito m'mafakitale chinatsatiridwa bwino, ndi kuchuluka kwa matani pafupifupi 83.40 miliyoni, chomwe chinali pafupifupi 28%. M'zaka zaposachedwa, ndi kukula kosalekeza kwa mphamvu yokonza, chakudya cha chimanga m'mafakitale chakhala chokhazikika. Mphamvu yopangira imagawidwa makamaka m'madera omwe amapanga chimanga kumpoto chakum'mawa ndi kumpoto kwa China, ndipo zonse pamodzi zimapitirira 80% ya mphamvu yonse. Kugwiritsa ntchito mbewu ndi kochepa, komwe kumafikira pafupifupi 0.43%. Ponseponse, chakudya chophatikizana ndi ntchito zamafakitale chinali choposa 92%, chomwe ndi mphamvu yayikulu yogwiritsira ntchito chimanga ku China.
Kuyambira pachiyambi cha 2023 mpaka pachiyambi cha 2026, mitengo ya chimanga cha m'dzikolo nthawi zambiri inkawonetsa kutsika kosinthasintha, kuchoka pa 3.04 yuan pa kilogalamu mu Januwale 2023 kufika pa 2.5 yuan pa kilogalamu mu Marichi 2026, ndi kutsika konsekonse kwa pafupifupi 17.76%. Munthawi yomweyi, mitengo ya chimanga cha padziko lonse lapansi inawonetsanso kutsika, kuchoka pa 2.82 yuan pa kilogalamu kufika pa 2.24 yuan pa kilogalamu, ndi kutsika konsekonse kwa pafupifupi 20.57%. Kusinthasintha kwa mitengo yapadziko lonse kunali kofala kwambiri, ndipo zonsezi zinawonetsa kufooka kozungulira kwa zomwe zikuchitika, koma mtengo wa m'dzikolo nthawi zambiri unali wokwera kuposa mtengo wa padziko lonse nthawi zambiri.
2.2. Kusanthula Mapangidwe a Malonda Ochokera Kunja ndi Kutumiza Kunja
Malinga ndi deta yochokera ku kasitomu ku China, mu 2025, kuchuluka kwa chimanga chochokera kunja ku China kunali matani 266.35 miliyoni, zomwe zinali zokwera matani 213 miliyoni kuposa kuchuluka kwa malonda otumizidwa kunja (matani 53.38 miliyoni); ndalama zomwe zinatumizidwa kunja zinali madola 715 miliyoni aku US, zomwe zinali pafupifupi 0.34% ya ndalama zonse zomwe zinatumizidwa kunja kwa dziko mu 2025 (madola 207.41 biliyoni aku US); ndalama zomwe zinatumizidwa kunja zinali madola 404 miliyoni aku US, zomwe zinali pafupifupi 0.39% ya ndalama zonse zomwe zinatumizidwa kunja kwa dziko mu 2025 (madola 104.16 biliyoni aku US); kusowa kwa malonda kunafika madola 3.11 biliyoni aku US.
Malinga ndi malonda, mu 2025, chimanga chachikulu chomwe chinalowetsedwa ku China chinali "chimanga, kupatulapo chobzalidwa", "chimanga chozizira", "wowuma wa chimanga", "chimanga chokoma chomwe sichinakonzedwe kapena kusungidwa ndi viniga", "ufa wa chimanga", "chimanga chobzalidwa", ndi zina zotero, zonse pamodzi zinali magulu 10. Katundu yemwe anali ndi kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa kuitanitsa kunja anali "chimanga, kupatulapo chobzalidwa" - ndi kuchuluka kwa kuitanitsa kunja kwa matani 2,646,290.81 (pafupifupi makilogalamu 264.63 miliyoni) ndi mtengo wa kuitanitsa kunja wa madola 692,642,700 aku US (pafupifupi madola 693 miliyoni aku US), zomwe zinali 99.35% ndi 96.82% ya kuchuluka konse kwa kuitanitsa kunja ndi mtengo wa kuitanitsa kunja kwa zinthu zokhudzana ndi chimanga ku China mu 2025, motsatana.
Zinthu zazikulu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja ndi "wowuma wa chimanga", "chimanga chotsekemera chomwe chimakonzedwa kapena kusungidwa ndi njira zopanda acetic", "chimanga chotsekemera chozizira", "mafuta ena a chimanga ndi zotumphukira zake", "chimanga cha forage", ndi zina zotero, zomwe zili m'magulu 10. Pakati pawo, chinthu chomwe chimatumizidwa kunja kwambiri ndi "wowuma wa chimanga" - kuchuluka kwa zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja mu 2025 ndi matani 213,444.1 (pafupifupi matani 21.34 miliyoni), ndipo mtengo wotumizidwa kunja ndi madola 81.9832 miliyoni aku US (pafupifupi madola 0.82 miliyoni aku US), zomwe zimapangitsa 39.99% ndi 20.29% ya kuchuluka konse kwa zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja ndi mtengo wotumizira kunja kwa zinthu zokhudzana ndi chimanga ku China mu 2025 motsatana. Chogulitsa chomwe chili ndi mtengo waukulu kwambiri wotumizira kunja ndi "chimanga chotsekemera chomwe chimakonzedwa kapena kusungidwa ndi njira zopanda acetic" - kuchuluka kwa kutumiza kunja mu 2025 ndi matani 172,079.29 (pafupifupi matani 17.21 miliyoni), ndipo mtengo wotumizira kunja ndi madola 181.123 miliyoni aku US (pafupifupi madola 1.81 miliyoni aku US), zomwe zimapangitsa 32.24% ndi 44.82% ya kuchuluka konse kwa zinthu zokhudzana ndi chimanga zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja ku China mu 2025 motsatana.
3. Kusanthula Mtengo ndi Ubwino wa Kubzala
3.1. Mtengo Wonse pa Ekala
Malinga ndi "National Agricultural Product Cost and Revenue Data Compilation", mu 2024, mtengo wonse wa chimanga pa mu imodzi ku China unali 1,316.7 yuan. Poyerekeza ndi 2023, yomwe inali 1,312.04 yuan, idakwera ndi 4.66 yuan, zomwe zikutanthauza kuwonjezeka kwa pafupifupi 0.36%. Kuchokera nthawi yayitali, mtengo wonse wa chimanga pa mu imodzi ku China kuyambira 2014 mpaka 2024 udawonetsa kukwera kosinthasintha. Pazaka 10 zapitazi, idakwera kuchoka pa 1,063.89 yuan kufika pa 1,316.7 yuan, ndi kuwonjezeka konse kwa 23.76%.
3.2. Mtengo Wonse wa Pa Mu
Malinga ndi deta yochokera ku "National Agricultural Cost and Revenue Data Compilation", kuyambira 2014 mpaka 2024, mtengo wa chimanga pa ekala ku China unawonetsa kusintha kwakukulu kwa "kuyamba kuchepa, kenako kuwonjezeka, kenako kutsikanso kwambiri". Kuyambira 2014 mpaka 2016, mtengo wa chimanga pa ekala unatsika mosalekeza kuchoka pa 1,145.71 yuan kufika pa 765.89 yuan, ndi kuchepa konse kwa 33.15%. Kenako inalowa mu nthawi ya kukula yomwe inatenga zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri, ndipo inapitirira kukwera kuyambira 2017 mpaka 2023, kufika pachimake chakale cha 1,466.43 yuan mu 2023, ndi kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwambiri chaka ndi chaka mu 2020, pa 27.87%. Komabe, mu 2024, phindu la pa ekala imodzi linatsika kufika pa 1,093.94 yuan, ndipo linatsika kwambiri ndi 25.40% chaka ndi chaka, zomwe zinabwerera pamlingo wa 2015 mpaka 2019.
3.3. Phindu pa ekala
Phindu lonse lochokera ku ulimi wa chimanga limatanthauza ndalama zonse zomwe zimapezeka kuchokera ku ntchito zobzala chimanga mutachotsa ndalama zonse zopangira monga mbewu, feteleza, antchito, ndi makina. Ndi chizindikiro chachikulu choyezera phindu la zachuma lochokera ku ulimi wa chimanga. Malinga ndi deta yochokera ku "National Agricultural Product Cost and Revenue Compilation", kutengera phindu la chimanga pa ekala iliyonse ku China kuyambira 2014 mpaka 2024, ndalama zomwe zimabzalidwa zikuwonetsa mawonekedwe a "phindu ndi kutayika kosinthana, ndi kusinthasintha kwakukulu m'zaka zaposachedwa": mu 2014, panali phindu laling'ono la 81.82 yuan, kuyambira 2015 mpaka 2019, panali kutayika kwa zaka zisanu motsatizana (kutayika kwakukulu kwambiri mu 2016 kunali 299.7 yuan), kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2023, panali phindu la zaka zinayi motsatizana, ndipo mu 2022, linafika pachimake pa 163.25 yuan, koma mu 2024, linachepa kwambiri kufika pa -222.76 yuan, kubwerera ku kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa kutayika. Poganizira za kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zatulutsidwa, ngakhale kuti kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zatulutsidwa kunatsika ndi 25.4% mu 2024, phindu lonse linatsika kuchoka pa phindu la 154.39 yuan kufika pa kutayika kwa 222.76 yuan, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti kukakamizidwa kwa mtengo kwakwera kwambiri kapena kutsika kwa mitengo kwapitirira zomwe ankayembekezera.
Nthawi yotumizira: Meyi-19-2026
