Nkhondo ya Russia-Ukraine itayambika, kukwera kwa mitengo yazakudya padziko lonse lapansi kunakhudza kwambiri chitetezo cha chakudya padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti dziko lonse lapansi lizindikire kuti kufunikira kwa chakudya ndi vuto la mtendere ndi chitukuko cha dziko lapansi.
Mchaka cha 2023/24, chokhudzidwa ndi kukwera kwamitengo yazinthu zaulimi padziko lonse lapansi, kuchuluka kwa mbewu zonse zambewu ndi soya padziko lonse lapansi kudakweranso kwambiri, zomwe zidapangitsa mitengo yamitundu yosiyanasiyana yazakudya m'maiko okonda msika pambuyo poti mndandanda wa mbewu zatsopano utsika kwambiri.Komabe, chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo kwadzaoneni komwe kudabwera chifukwa cha kutulutsa kwa ndalama zapamwamba kwambiri ndi US Federal Reserve ku Asia, mtengo wa mpunga pamsika wapadziko lonse udakwera kwambiri kuti uwongolere kukwera mtengo kwanyumba ndikuwongolera kugulitsa mpunga ku India. .
Kuwongolera misika ku China, India, ndi Russia kwakhudza kukula kwawo kwa chakudya mu 2024, koma chonsecho, kupanga chakudya padziko lonse lapansi mu 2024 kuli pamlingo wapamwamba.
Choyenera kusamala kwambiri, mtengo wa golide wapadziko lonse ukukwera kwambiri, kutsika kwamitengo ya ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi, mitengo yazakudya yapadziko lonse ikukwera, pakangotha kusiyana kwapachaka ndi kuchuluka kwa kufunikira, mitengo yayikulu yazakudya ikhoza kukwera kwambiri. kachiwiri, kotero panopa kufunika kulabadira kwambiri kupanga chakudya, kupewa mantha.
Kulima phala padziko lonse lapansi
Mu 2023/24, malo ambewu padziko lonse lapansi adzakhala mahekitala 75.6 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 0.38% kuposa chaka chatha.Zokolola zonse zafika matani 3.234 biliyoni, ndipo zokolola pa hekitala zinali 4,277 kg/ha, kukwera 2.86% ndi 3.26% kuposa chaka chatha.(Chiwerengero chonse cha mpunga chinali matani 2.989 biliyoni, kukwera 3.63% kuchokera chaka chatha.)
Mu 2023/24, nyengo zaulimi ku Asia, Europe ndi United States nthawi zambiri zimakhala zabwino, ndipo mitengo yokwera yazakudya imathandizira kupititsa patsogolo chidwi cha alimi obzala, kubweretsa chiwonjezeko cha zokolola zamagawo ndi gawo la mbewu zapadziko lonse lapansi.
Pakati pawo, dera lofesedwa la tirigu, chimanga ndi mpunga mu 2023/24 linali mahekitala 601.5 miliyoni, kutsika ndi 0,56% kuchokera chaka cham'mbuyo;Zotsatira zonse zidafika matani 2.79 biliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 1.71%;Zokolola pagawo lililonse zinali 4638 kg/ha, zomwe ndi 2.28% kuposa chaka chatha.
Kupanga ku Europe ndi South America kudachira pambuyo pa chilala mu 2022;Kutsika kwa ulimi wa mpunga ku South ndi South-East Asia kwasokoneza kwambiri mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene.
Mitengo yazakudya padziko lonse
Mu February 2024, index yamitengo yapadziko lonse yazakudya * inali US $353/tani, kutsika ndi 2.70% mwezi-pa-mwezi ndi 13.55% pachaka;Mu Januwale-February 2024, pafupifupi mitengo yazakudya padziko lonse lapansi inali $357 / tani, kutsika ndi 12.39% pachaka.
Chiyambireni chaka chatsopano cha mbewu (kuyambira mu Meyi), mitengo yazakudya padziko lonse lapansi yatsika, ndipo mtengo wapakati kuyambira Meyi mpaka February unali 370 US dollars/ton, kutsika ndi 11.97% pachaka.Pakati pawo, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa tirigu, chimanga ndi mpunga mu February unali madola 353 US / tani, pansi pa 2.19% mwezi ndi mwezi ndi 12.0% pachaka;Mtengo wapakati mu Januwale-February 2024 unali $357 / tani, kutsika ndi 12.15% pachaka;Avereji ya chaka chatsopano cha mbewu kuyambira Meyi mpaka February anali $365 / tani, kutsika $365 / tani pachaka.
Mlozera wamitengo yambewu zonse ndi ndondomeko yamitengo yambewu zitatu zazikuluzikulu zatsika kwambiri m’chaka chatsopano cha mbewu, kusonyeza kuti zinthu zonse zopezeka m’chaka chatsopano cha mbewu zayenda bwino.Mitengo yomwe ilipo nthawi zambiri imatsika mpaka pomwe idawonedwa komaliza mu Julayi ndi Ogasiti 2020, ndipo kutsika kopitilira muyeso kumatha kusokoneza kupanga chakudya padziko lonse lapansi m'chaka chatsopano.
Kupezeka kwambewu padziko lonse lapansi ndi kuchuluka kwa kufunikira
Mu 2023/24, kuchuluka kwa mbewu zonse za mpunga pambuyo pa mpunga kunali matani 2.989 biliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 3.63% kuposa chaka chatha, komanso kuwonjezeka kwa zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mtengo ugwe kwambiri.
Chiwerengero chonse cha anthu padziko lonse lapansi chikuyembekezeka kukhala 8.026 biliyoni, chiwonjezeko cha 1.04% kuposa chaka chatha, ndipo kukula kwa chakudya ndi chakudya kumaposa kuchuluka kwa anthu padziko lapansi.Kudya phala padziko lonse lapansi kunali matani 2.981 biliyoni, ndipo zomaliza zapachaka zinali matani 752 miliyoni, ndi chitetezo cha 25.7%.
Kutulutsa kwa munthu aliyense kunali 372.4 kg, 1.15% kuposa chaka chatha.Pazakudya, kudya ndi 157.8 kg, kudya ndi 136.8 kg, kudya kwina ndi 76.9 kg, ndipo kudya konse ndi 371.5 kg.Ma kilogalamu.Kutsika kwamitengo kudzabweretsa kuwonjezeka kwa zinthu zina, zomwe zidzalepheretsa mtengowo kuti upitirire kugwa panthawi yamtsogolo.
Kupanga phala padziko lonse lapansi Outlook
Malinga ndi kuwerengetsera kwamitengo yapadziko lonse lapansi, malo obzala mbewu padziko lonse lapansi mchaka cha 2024 ndi mahekitala 760 miliyoni, zokolola pa hekitala ndi 4,393 kg/ha, ndipo dziko lonse lapansi ndi matani 3,337 miliyoni.Kutulutsa kwa mpunga kunali matani 3.09 biliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 3.40% kuposa chaka chatha.
Malinga ndi chitukuko cha dera ndi zokolola pa gawo lililonse la mayiko akuluakulu padziko lapansi, pofika chaka cha 2030, malo obzala mbewu padziko lonse lapansi adzakhala pafupifupi mahekitala 760 miliyoni, zokolola pa gawo lililonse lidzakhala 4,748 kg/hekitala, ndi dziko lonse lapansi. kutulutsa kudzakhala matani 3.664 biliyoni, kutsika kuposa nthawi yapitayi.Kukula kwapang'onopang'ono ku China, India ndi Europe kwapangitsa kuti kuchedwetsa kuchulukitsidwa kwambewu padziko lonse lapansi ndi dera.
Podzafika chaka cha 2030, India, Brazil, United States ndi China adzakhala omwe amapanga zakudya zambiri padziko lonse lapansi.Mu 2035, malo obzala mbewu padziko lonse lapansi akuyembekezeka kufika mahekitala 789 miliyoni, ndi zokolola za 5,318 kg / ha, komanso kupanga padziko lonse lapansi matani 4.194 biliyoni.
Kuchokera pazimenezi, palibe kusowa kwa malo olimidwa padziko lapansi, koma kukula kwa zokolola pa unit ndi pang'onopang'ono, zomwe zimafuna chidwi chachikulu.Kulimbikitsa kusintha kwachilengedwe, kupanga njira yoyendetsera bwino, komanso kulimbikitsa kugwiritsa ntchito sayansi yamakono ndiukadaulo paulimi kumatsimikizira tsogolo la chakudya padziko lonse lapansi.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-08-2024