Chiyembekezo cha 2024: Chilala ndi zoletsa zotumiza kunja zidzakhwimitsa mbewu padziko lonse lapansi ndi mafuta a kanjedza

Kukwera mtengo kwaulimi m’zaka zaposachedwapa kwachititsa alimi padziko lonse kudzala mbewu zambiri ndi mbewu zamafuta.Komabe, kukhudzika kwa El Nino, kuphatikizidwa ndi zoletsa kutumizira kunja m'maiko ena komanso kupitilizabe kukula kwamafuta amafuta achilengedwe, zikuwonetsa kuti ogula atha kukumana ndi vuto lokwanira mu 2024.
Pambuyo pa kupindula kwakukulu pamitengo ya tirigu, chimanga ndi soyabean padziko lonse zaka zingapo zapitazi, 2023 yatsika kwambiri pamene Black Sea Logistics imachepetsa komanso chiyembekezo cha kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse, ofufuza ndi amalonda adatero.Mu 2024, komabe, mitengo imakhalabe pachiwopsezo chopereka chipwirikiti komanso kukwera kwamitengo yazakudya.Ole Howie akuti chakudya chambewu chidzayenda bwino mu 2023 chifukwa madera ena akuluakulu omwe amalima amachulukitsa zokolola, koma sanachoke m'nkhalango.Ndi mabungwe azanyengo akulosera kuti El Nino ikhalapo mpaka Epulo kapena Meyi chaka chamawa, chimanga cha ku Brazil chili pafupi kugwa, ndipo China ikugula tirigu ndi chimanga zambiri pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi.
Nyengo ya El Nino, yomwe yabweretsa nyengo yowuma kumadera ambiri ku Asia chaka chino ndipo imatha mpaka theka loyamba la 2024, zikutanthauza kuti ena ogulitsa ndi ogulitsa kunja amakumana ndi zoopsa za mpunga, tirigu, mafuta a kanjedza ndi zinthu zina zaulimi.
Amalonda ndi akuluakulu akuyembekeza kuti mpunga wa ku Asia udzagwa mu theka loyamba la 2024, chifukwa mikhalidwe yobzala youma ndi kuchepetsa kusungirako madzi m'masungidwe kungayambitse zokolola zochepa.Mpunga wapadziko lonse lapansi unali wovuta kale chaka chino El Nino itachepetsa kupanga ndikupangitsa India, yemwe ndi wotsogola kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, kuti aletse kutumiza kunja.Ngakhale mbewu zina zidatsika, mitengo ya mpunga idakweranso mpaka zaka 15 sabata yatha, mitengo yomwe ena aku Asia amatumiza kunja idakwera 40-45%.
Ku India, dziko lachiwiri lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi lolima tirigu, mbewu yotsatira ya tirigu ilinso pachiwopsezo chifukwa cha kusowa kwa mvula zomwe zingakakamize India kufunafuna zogula kuchokera kunja kwa nthawi yoyamba m'zaka zisanu ndi chimodzi chifukwa milu ya tirigu ya boma yatsika kwambiri. zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri.
Ku Australia, dziko lachiwiri lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wogulitsa tirigu, miyezi yotentha yawononga zokolola chaka chino, ndikutha zaka zitatu zokolola zambiri.Alimi aku Australia akuyenera kubzala tirigu m'nthaka youma mwezi wa Epulo.Kutayika kwa tirigu ku Australia kungapangitse ogula monga China ndi Indonesia kufunafuna tirigu wochuluka kuchokera ku North America, Europe ndi Black Sea.Commerzbank ikukhulupirira kuti kuchuluka kwa tirigu kuyenera kuchulukirachulukira mu 2023/24, popeza katundu wotumiza kunja kuchokera kumayiko omwe akutulutsa kwambiri atha kuchepetsedwa kwambiri.
Malo owala a 2024 ndikuneneratu kwa chimanga, tirigu ndi soya ku South America, ngakhale nyengo ku Brazil idakali yodetsa nkhawa.Kugwa kwamvula m'madera omwe amalima kwambiri ku Argentina kunathandiza kulimbikitsa zokolola za soya, chimanga ndi tirigu.Chifukwa cha mvula yosalekeza ku Pambas udzu kuyambira kumapeto kwa Okutobala, 95 peresenti ya chimanga chobzalidwa msanga ndi 75 peresenti ya zokolola za soya ndi zabwino kwambiri.Ku Brazil, mbewu za 2024 zatsala pang'ono kuyandikira kwambiri, ngakhale zolosera za soya ndi chimanga mdziko muno zachepetsedwa m'masabata aposachedwa chifukwa cha mvula.
Kupanga mafuta a kanjedza padziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezekanso kutsika chifukwa cha nyengo yowuma yomwe El Nino amabweretsa, kuthandizira mitengo yamafuta odyedwa.Mitengo yamafuta a kanjedza ikutsika kuposa 6% mpaka pano mu 2023. Ngakhale kupanga mafuta a kanjedza kukuchepa, kufunikira kwa mafuta a kanjedza kukukula m'makampani a biodiesel ndi chakudya.
Kuchokera ku mbiri yakale, zinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi za tirigu ndi zamafuta ndizolimba, Northern Hemisphere ikuyenera kuwona nyengo yolimba ya El Nino panyengo yakukula kwanthawi yoyamba kuyambira 2015, dola yaku US iyenera kupitiliza kuchepa kwaposachedwa, pomwe kufunika kwapadziko lonse lapansi kuyenera kutero. kuyambiranso kukula kwake kwa nthawi yayitali.